Issued Friday October 30 2009

 

 

    Looking ahead to winter, a weak to moderate El Nino pattern is expected.  In this type of pattern, water temperatures warm to unusually high levels over the eastern portions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.  This setup leads to significant disruptions to the typical jet stream pattern over North America.  In an El Nino winter, temperatures are usually warmer than normal from the western Great Lakes west along the Canadian border to British Columbia and Washington State.  Conditions are usually a bit colder and drier than normal here in the northeastern United States.

 

    Here is my hunch for the winter ahead.  This forecast is tied, in part, to the weather conditions experienced here in Central New York during our last minor El Nino winter back in the winter of 2002 - 2003.  The other thing I have been watching, with some surprise, over the past nine months is the semi-permanent, upper-air low positioned over Hudson Bay, Canada.  With this type of consistent setup it is hard to see how we would break out of the cool pattern we've been in for much of the past year.  Adding in the early-season snow we've already seen, this weather watcher expects nothing less than our typical, moderately harsh winter conditions.

 

    In detail, I expect a fairly cold and snowy November with an early opening for the area ski resorts.  There is a good chance for some lake snow during November with the possibility of a significant icing event.  It appears that our chances for snow on the ground on Christmas Day are extremely high.  The weather will likely remain rough at times through January with plenty of snow.  Snow will likely cover the ground for a considerable length of time.  Areas from New York City south to Washington D.C. stand a good chance for some big snows during February.  There will be several bouts of school-closing cold here as late as early March.  Lake-effect snow events will be frequent throughout the winter, especially for the counties directly to the east of Lake Ontario.  Temperatures will quickly warm by mid-March with a fairly quick end to the cold weather season.